By EUvsDisinfo
While peace talks may eventually silence the guns, the Kremlin disinformation apparatus is already drafting and pushing narratives to fracture post-war Ukraine.
As we mark three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the real possibility of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is on the horizon. Not surprisingly, the Kremlin’s disinformation apparatus is already laying the groundwork for its next campaign to skew public perceptions in Russia’s favour.
Drawing on patterns that we have identified through almost a decade of monitoring pro-Kremlin outlets and exposing their bile, we have identified some of the likely narratives and information manipulation operations the Kremlin will deploy in an attempt to undermine Ukraine’s post-war sovereignty.
Controlling the peace terms narrative
As we have already witnessed, Moscow continues to frame its ultimatums as ‘the only path to peace’, while framing Ukraine and the European Union as obstacles to peace. The Kremlin will likely continue to falsely portray the West, and NATO in particular, as the aggressor that ‘caused’ the war through ‘eastern expansion’ to justify Russia’s full-scale invasion as a defensive act. The aim of this approach is to instil the idea that Ukraine’s NATO membership is an absolute red line in any negotiations.
While the Kremlin might theoretically accept the possibility of Ukraine’s EU membership, Russia is likely to push for more distant accession dates – 2035, 2040, or beyond – while simultaneously launching a two-pronged disinformation campaign.
Firstly, to Ukrainians, the message will continue to be that the EU will transform their country into a ‘colony’ resulting in deindustrialisation and land grabs by wealthy Europeans. Secondly, to EU citizens, Russia will emphasise how ‘corrupt Ukrainian elites’ will embezzle European funds and that reconstruction costs will ‘bankrupt the EU’.
Delegitimising Ukraine’s leadership
Pro-Kremlin outlets have for a long time claimed that President Zelenskyy’s mandate expired in April 2024, making him ‘illegitimate’. In addition to the unfounded illegitimacy claims, President Zelenskyy has been targeted with a pro-Kremlin smear campaign, where he has been accused of being a ‘Nazi’, a ‘dictator’, and ‘corrupt’, to name a few slurs. Such disinformation narratives serve a dual purpose: to attempt to weaken Ukraine’s negotiating position internationally, and to increase internal divisions within Ukrainian society.
Whatever shape the peace talks will take, Moscow will likely demand Ukraine be represented by specific individuals, possibly including pro-Russian politicians. And if they are not included in the Ukrainian delegation, Russia could then question the legitimacy of any agreement signed by the current Ukrainian leadership and push for immediate presidential elections in Ukraine where the Kremlin can deploy its influence operations.
This tactic mirrors a familiar Kremlin approach – challenging the legitimacy of democratic institutions to create governance vacuums it can then exploit. By creating uncertainty about who has the authority to represent Ukraine, Russia hopes to weaken Ukraine’s position while strengthening its own hand at the negotiating table.
Targeting post-war elections
Based on the Kremlin’s well-documented track record (see, for example, here, here, and here) of election interference, there is no doubt that the pro-Kremlin disinformation apparatus will target post-war elections organised in Ukraine.
Moscow will most likely attempt to discredit outspoken candidates supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, while promoting pro-Russian candidates who promise ‘reconciliation’ with Russia. These candidates may make bold promises about returning displaced people to their homes and securing cheap energy deals – promises Moscow will eagerly affirm.
The Kremlin will specifically attempt to target internally displaced persons with messaging that Ukraine’s leadership ‘betrayed’ them by ‘ceding territory’ in any peace agreement. Simultaneously, Russia will work to depress pro-Ukrainian voter turnout by fostering cynicism with narratives suggesting all candidates are equally corrupt and nothing will change for ordinary citizens regardless of who wins.
If these tactics fail and pro-Ukrainian candidates win anyway, Russia will question the election’s legitimacy, claiming pro-Russian candidates were prevented from campaigning freely and that media restrictions and polling station violations invalidated the results. These approaches would mirror recent elections interference activities seen in Moldova. No doubt, the Kremlin is looking also at Georgia as an inspiration.
Exposing the Kremlin’s long game
The Kremlin’s disinformation feeds off the natural divisions that emerge in post-conflict societies. They count on war fatigue and political amnesia.
A future ceasefire and, eventually, peace will bring up challenging questions about reconciliation, reconstruction, and accountability – all relevant questions that Russian disinformation will target with wedge narratives designed to split Ukrainian society along regional, linguistic, cultural-religious, or political lines.
The road to lasting peace requires not just diplomatic agreements, but a true understanding of Russia’s long-term strategic goals cleverly disguised by the Kremlin’s ongoing manipulation campaigns. Russia’s more than decade-long war against Ukraine’s sovereignty will continue in the information domain long after the physical fighting has ended.
Don’t be deceived. Stand with Ukraine.
By EUvsDisinfo
