How to boost the Western response to Russian hostile influence operations

Let us sum up what is meant when speaking about ‘Russian aggression’. The European Values think tank (Richter 2018) suggests that Russia’s hostile actions in Europe can be grouped into five broad categories.

1. Military aggression and revanchism. Russia invades, occupies and destabilises countries near its borders that seek to align themselves with the West and creates frozen conflicts to maintain control over these countries; as a result, conventional war in Europe is no longer merely theoretical.
2. Support for political extremism (far-left and far-right). In pursuit of its goal to destabilise liberal democracy, Russia fuels and abets extremist sentiments and political movements in Europe on both the far left and the far right by providing funding, supporting disinformation campaigns and legitimising extremist voices through its own media.
3. Offensive cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns. Russian cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns against Western states are growing increasingly audacious and belligerent, designed to undermine trust in democratic institutions and civic cohesion, as well as destabilise state infrastructure, democratic processes (that is, elections and referenda) and other key public services.
4. Using energy as a ‘wedge strategy’ against energy-dependent states. Russia uses its energy resources to increase its strategic influence in the EU and the shared neighbourhood, exploiting the energy dependence of states in these spaces via political and economic blackmail to further its geostrategic interests and coerce compliance. It also seeks to establish new means of energy dominance in Europe (such as the planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline) to ‘divide and conquer’ and undermine EU solidarity.
5. Exportation of weaponised corruption. Russia uses financial dealings with political strings attached to exert political and business pressure on other states, including providing funding for pro-Kremlin political parties or individuals in Europe that comes from clandestine sources. Russian pro-Kremlin oligarchs also use Western financial havens to protect their assets, investing abroad to avoid taxes in Russia.

Despite the ongoing Russian aggression, the Western response is lacking in comprehensiveness and intensity. The EU and the US imposed economic sanctions on parts of the Russian economy and selected individuals after 2014, but the only states which have effectively stepped up their sanctions against escalating Russian aggression have been the US, after the Russian interference in the 2016 presidential elections, and, to a lesser degree, the UK, following the Skripal poisoning incident in the spring of 2018. The European Values think tank has also assessed the responses of the EU member states to Russian subversion efforts on a year-to-year basis (Kremlin Watch 2018). On the one hand, positive political and policy developments (meaning increasing resistance to this threat) from 2017 to 2018 can be spotted in Sweden, the UK, Denmark, France, Slovakia and Croatia. On the other hand, negative political and policy developments from 2017 to 2018 (meaning decreasing resistance to this threat) can be spotted in the Czech Republic, Austria, the Netherlands, Bulgaria, Germany and Italy.

After studying the Western reaction to the above-mentioned aggressive activities of the Russian Federation, there are five major trends which can be observed, as outlined below.

First, Europe lacks non-military forms of deterrence and is a constant target. The point of deterrence is to stop the adversary from attacking again by raising the expected costs of such an activity (Freedman 2009). In military terms, the West has so far deterred Russia from attacking a NATO member state, although the Russian military has been actively provoking the Baltic republics. However in non-military terms, it is clear that the West and, more specifically, EU member states are failing to come up with meaningful forms of deterrence. This is clear from the fact that Russian aggression is escalating and does not show any signs of stopping. Just a few examples include Russian interference in the 2016 Dutch EU–Ukraine Association Agreement referendum, the 2016 Brexit referendum, the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum, the 2017 French presidential elections, the 2017 Catalonia crisis and the 2017 German parliamentary elections (Noack 2018). The West has not punished Russia for any of these hostile acts. There have been no meaningful sanctions imposed on Russia, only diplomatic talk and negative media coverage. If we ask the question, ‘Does the Kremlin see European counteractions as strong and does the Russian government fear the European reaction when it interferes in European domestic affairs?’, the answer is clearly no. Russia has no incentive to stop its hostile influence activities in Europe because it does not fear strong retaliation.

Second, only the US (and to some extent the UK) is willing to escalate defensive sanctions and deterrence measures. If we take a big-picture look at the West, there is a major difference between the actions of Continental Europe and those of the US, accompanied by the UK. While Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election caused the strategic awakening of a large portion of the American political establishment to the Russian threat (with the exception of the president), Europeans seem to be much more submissive and unwilling to take even defensive action to stop the aggressor. In practical terms, Washington has put in place extensive and escalating sanctions against Russian behaviour and has invested large sums in countering Russian influence and disinformation in Europe too (Harris 2018). In contrast most of the Western European political establishment has been rhetorically defensive on this issue, but has failed to implement practical policy measures. The UK has experienced two stages of awakening: one following the Russian chemical attack on UK soil in spring 2018 (the Skripal poisoning case) (BBC News 2018) and the second as a ramification of ongoing investigations into Russian influence in the 2016 Brexit vote (UK Parliament, Digital Culture, Media and Sport Committee 2018). It is no surprise that special parliamentary enquiries into Russian interference in their respective domestic elections are only ongoing in Washington (VOA 2017) and London (UK Parliament, Digital Culture, Media and Sport Committee 2018), and not on the Continent. Russia can keep buying political influence in Western Europe because there is no resistance to it. For example, French President Emmanuel Macron has been vocal on the issue of Russian disinformation and his administration’s plans to propose legislation on disinformation (France 24 2018), but there has been no visible effort to counter the Russian influence in French politics. Very recently, political parties with direct institutional links to Russian entities have even entered governments within the EU—in Italy and Austria.

Third, the Western map of approaches to the Russian threat has been drawn up, with no major changes expected in the coming years. The coalition of EU member states confronting the Russian threat is stable, yet weak. It consists of 10–12 member states (Kremlin Watch 2018), comprising most of the states from Central and Eastern Europe, plus the UK. Since 2014 there have been no major shifts in the alliance. While some Western European EU member states have experienced awakenings and public debate about the issue following major Russian interference incidents (e.g. Spain, the UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands), there has been no strategic shift that has changed the balance of power in terms of countering this threat from within the EU. It is therefore likely that no major shifts can be expected in the coming years, given the fact that escalating Russian aggression has not been a game-changer. Two negative developments are already on the horizon. First, Brexit will mean that not only will the UK voice and vote be missed in the various EU formats, but the experience and expertise of British civil servants will also disappear from the EU institutions. The effect of this might not be felt instantly, but the strategic impact of such a withdrawal will have to be assessed over time. Second, the new Italian government, which entered office in the summer of 2018, will make it even harder for the EU to keep the existing sanctions in place, as they have to be renewed by unanimous decision. It can be expected that Rome will keep threatening to unilaterally block the future extension of EU sanctions in order to add leverage to its negotiations with other member states regarding budgets and migration.

Fourth, Germany has not taken a leading role in stopping Russian aggression. While Germany is considered to have the most influence on essentially any EU decision, it is clear that its political establishment is unwilling to take a leading role in countering this threat. Chancellor Angela Merkel has been the driving force behind EU sanctions against Russia and is probably the main reason why they still hold, but the sanctions are essentially basic and there is no political will among the EU member states to boost them. The German political establishment is also determined to push the Nord Stream 2 project through, despite the objections of its allies and the arguments of security experts (European Values 2018). This selfishness and unwillingness to take the lead in punishing Russia for its numerous atrocities and other hostile actions effectively means that there can be no expectation that Berlin could be the leading principled power. Russia can have no major fear that Germany might step up the Western response to its aggressive activities.

Fifth, EU member states are not willing to defend themselves from Russian subversion, and offensive measures are (very much) out of the question. Most European efforts do not focus on stopping the aggressor, but on making attacks on the target more difficult. A review of policy countermeasures by EU member states (Kremlin Watch 2018) shows that the political will to implement structural policies to counter this threat is limited. The main reason for this is a lack of understanding of the urgency of the threat, combined with the high degree of political sensitivity to the matter which is clearly present in many Western and Southern European member states. Because of this political environment, it is unlikely that Europe will soon engage in punishing Russian behaviour and therefore in effectively trying to deter the aggressor. We are still in the phase of discussion about whether and what the states should do domestically to decrease their vulnerabilities. It is a much more politically demanding and sensitive matter to implement significant policies to deter and stop Russia. Therefore it is unlikely that European countries will engage in offensive measures, because so far they have failed to take their own defence seriously.