As developments on and off the battlefield appear to favor Moscow, Vladimir Putin’s mouthpieces are talking revealingly about the prospect of a Russian victory, and what would come next.
By Kseniya Kirillova, for CEPA
The news has been bleak for Kyiv. North Korean troops have reinforced Putin’s armies and political changes in the Western alliance point to possible declines in support.
Ukrainian Major General Dmitriy Marchenko declared on October 28 that the front had collapsed, a day after Bild correspondent Julian Repke called the situation in the combat zone “catastrophic” for Kyiv’s army. The frank pronouncements came after Russian army successes in Donetsk and Kharkiv, where the Ukrainians were forced to retreat from eight areas of the front.
Against this backdrop, Russian propagandists and pro-Kremlin analysts have started speaking again of a quick and inevitable victory. Military experts write articles saying, “Kyiv teeters on the edge of complete collapse,” while analysts at the Putin-backed “Valdai” Discussion Club predict Washington will “abandon the Ukrainian instrument as unnecessary.”
Despite some Russian successes, however, independent analysts say the triumphalism of the Kremlin’s propagandists is overblown and Moscow will not secure a quick victory. The independent outlet Meduza points out that Russia has taken 2,067 sq km (798 square miles) of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2023, mostly in the last six months. This is accelerating, but the advances are still relatively small — Ukraine’s total area is 604,000 sq km.
The war of attrition may last a long time yet and, while it is battering Ukraine, it is also affecting Russia. It has probably now suffered 700,000 casualties and the rate is rising, UK military intelligence says.
Moscow’s growing belief in a quick victory has been revealing because its propagandists have started to discuss what comes next. It’s not nice. So much so that it may even scare away some of Putin’s potential allies.
These include talk of military targets beyond Ukraine. The business journal Vzglyad rejoiced that the potential capture of Kurakhove would open the way for Russia to take Zaporizhzhia and then Transnistria, which is internationally recognized as part of Moldova.
Propagandists and analysts also write of further cooperation with North Korea. While the Russian Foreign Ministry continues to deny sending North Korean soldiers to fight against Ukraine, dismissing reports as “fake news and hype,” experts at analytical centers have started bragging about the participation of Pyongyang’s forces in the war.
The Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, analyzing the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Russia and North Korea in the summer, emphasized that “these are relations between truly friendly countries” that “will influence the formation of the security architecture in the region,” but avoided writing about direct military cooperation.
Now, however, some military analysts openly refer to cooperation between the two countries as “a return to their roots,” and no longer conceal the participation of North Korean soldiers in combat. They even write of the prospect of a closer exchange of military experience, including training elite North Korean army units at Russian bases.
Kremlin-supported analysts at the Valdai Discussion Club say “questions of security may occupy a central place” in Russian-North Korean cooperation. “The DPRK’s involvement in European affairs remains an open question,” they write, but add “the US cannot prevent such a development, either by threat of force or sanctions.”
Military analysts also hint that explosions and fires at military warehouses in Europe are the work of Russian saboteurs. In familiar style, they ridicule accusations against Russia, but warn “accidents” will continue despite the West’s efforts to stop them. “Europe will remain defenseless,” according to the Military Review.
At the same time, Moscow’s plans for Ukraine are sounding ever more radical. Writers at Vzglyad suggest redrawing all internal Ukrainian borders, clearly in anticipation of its complete capture by Russia. Military analysts go further and demand the reprogramming of the Ukrainian people because they are “possessed” by the devil.
Politicians such as Dmitri Medvedev, who has made a career out of doing Vladimir Putin’s bidding, have spoken of Russia “fighting Satan,” and the use of religious language about the war has now traveled beyond radical Telegram channels and TV propagandists to more serious websites.
While the swift and easy defeat of Ukraine predicted by Russian propagandists is unlikely, their revealing over-excitement over the possibility should leave no illusions about the Kremlin’s future intentions.
By Kseniya Kirillova, for CEPA
Kseniya Kirillova is an analyst focused on Russian society, mentality, propaganda, and foreign policy. The author of numerous articles for CEPA and the Jamestown Foundation, she has also written for the Atlantic Council, Stratfor, and others.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
