Stanisław Żaryn
Peace and ceasefire negotiations that the West is more and more intensively trying to force on Ukraine, may have negative consequences for Central Europe. If NATO countries treat this issue in a naïve and imprudent manner, we may ourselves trigger dangerous events in future.
There is no doubt that signing “a kind of” agreement with Russia and ceasefire will be very unstable. Today it’s crystal clear that Russia has begun long term efforts of a global character and the attack against Ukraine is only a part of its plans, about which Moscow is talking openly anyhow. Thus, the war will be continued until the Kremlin decides that the aims are achieved. And the aims include gaining a dominant position in Ukraine, detach Ukraine from the West and drawing the country into the Russian sphere of influence. If the ceasefire is established, it will only be temporary and a façade. The war will not end and, given favourable circumstances, the frontline will revive.
The ceasefire period will be of critical importance for defence and deterrence capabilities of NATO countries, as temptations will occur to forget about armaments and to transfer money to other needs – if the war “has ended”. Their say will have those who can’t wait to get back to talks and agreements with Russia. Efforts undertaken by Russian propaganda and special services will fuel such groups and circles. During this period, the West will have to maintain the will to act and can’t be deceived by Russian façades. If we believe that we may already get into talks with Russia and that “we are not threatened by war”, that the time has come for a reset – the threat will reach us with double force. And when we awake, it may be too late.
Today some comments are full of misleading arguments, such as the idea of Ukraine’s immediate accession to NATO in exchange for relinquishing the right to territories occupied by Russia. It’s a dangerous idea – both for Ukraine and NATO. In such a scenario Ukraine and NATO would legalize occupation and aggression as a method of acting in the international arena. It will not end the war, but only postpone its another phase. What’s more, Russia would receive a signal that this manner of behaviour is effective and the West can’t handle the pressure. But, what is even more important, this scenario would have detrimental effects on the NATO countries potentially threatened by Russia. If NATO states were attacked, they could receive a similar “offer” – relinquish “the attacked territory” and there will be no problem. This scenario would de facto blur the allied guarantees. It’s suicidal.
Some commentators, mainly from the US, report that offensive actions on the frontline of the Russia against Ukraine war should immediately stop, as now it’s important to focus on threats coming form China. Once again, it’s a trap. Today we clearly see the attempt to build a new axis and alliance between Beijing-Moscow-Teheran-Pyongyang, which means that the alternative – neutralization of threats emerging in Europe or in the Far East – is a mere delusion. It’s impossible to defend peace in the Western world without taking actions on both directions. Experts in the US should be aware that by losing safe Europe and influences in our region, they will also lose the chance for the safe US. That’s why saying that Ukraine must quickly establish peace so that the US may “focus on neutralizing threats coming from China” is once again a false narrative, which may have dangerous consequences for the whole western community.
So what options are on the table? If we want to think about security in Europe, we must plan a long march. The West has no choice but to continue helping Ukraine. Kyiv should still receive effective military support in order to defend itself against the Russian aggression. NATO countries should also lift usage restrictions regarding weapons that the Alliance transfer. If Ukraine is to prevail in this war, it must have the possibility to destroy Russian facilities, logistics, but also to transfer warfare to the Russian soil in order to gain territory and improve its situation in the relations with the aggressor. Hits on the Russian territories should be acute also in order to enable Ukraine conducting psychological operations against the society and against Russian elites in particular. They should feel the consequences of the war that they have launched. Attacking targets in Russia, destroying leadership, liquidating propagandists that wage information warfare – that’s what is needed if Russia is to bare the real costs of war that it has started. Additionally, the West must make the sanctions regime more effective, identify loopholes and ways of circumventing restrictions, in order to make these mechanisms have a real impact on Moscow and its capabilities of waging war. These are key elements for Ukraine to have a chance in this war and for Russia to realize that it has made a mistake. Also further strengthening of NATO eastern flank will be a tangible sign that NATO treats its mission seriously. Opting for Poland as the main partner and ally in Europe will be understood in an obvious manner – eastern flank becomes today of critical importance for the whole Alliance. Russians must receive a strong signal regarding this issue.
Russian efforts prove that the Kremlin has planned the aggression in long term. Russia accumulated resources before the war and after the attack it redirected some contracts, shifted the economy into the war mode, modernized arms industry, successfully found new possibilities to repair damaged equipment. In the same time Russia amplified censorship and introduced even stronger system of manipulating the society. Right before our eyes a society of barbarians is being raised, who hate the West and treat it as the enemy. They will seek opportunities to destroy what allegedly threatens them. And a permanent army expansion shows that Russian threats will hang over the West for generations to come. Today we shouldn’t think about any reset at all. It would be a tremendous threat for the West.
